A Region of Unrest

As the U.S. and its allies ponder the government that will replace the Taliban in Afghanistan, they would do well to consider the regional perspective. One reason Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to the north have sealed their borders against refugees is that their own economies are less than robust. Another is that they fear terrorists entering with those taking flight and inciting rebellion.

Those concerns aren't likely to subside. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which seeks a pan-regional Islamic state, probably numbers fewer than 1,500, but deteriorating economic conditions could give it impetus. Uzbekistan derives 70 percent of its hard-currency revenues from cotton and Western observers maintain that its agricultural practices are depleting the soil at such a rate that in 15 years or less the crop will be negligible. That barren ground may instead support unrest in the population, which terrorists would be only too happy to cultivate. Stamping out terrorism in Afghanistan will represent only a narrow victory if those responsible, and their heirs, find refuge elsewhere in the region.

Ed Fowler

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(c) 2001 Millennium Relief & Development Services, vol. 1 no. 2
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