Waiting for the Ground to Shake As the world makes book on when the U.S. will move against Saddam Hussein, the Kurds of Northern Iraq watch the vise close on them. Officially, they are not kindly disposed to an invasion. They fear that the U.S. will make war on Hussein again without finishing him. They refuse to be seen in that instance as the Americans’ "hosts" when the smoke clears and G.I. Joe has gone home. Unofficially, they’re less than enthusiastic as well. The life they’ve lived for the last decade under the protection of the U.N. - kept in place by the U.S. and British warplanes that enforce the no-flight zone overhead - is the best they’ve ever known. They certainly enjoy far greater freedom than the Arabs who are their fellow Iraqis under Hussein’s thumb to the south. A change of regime might mean the end of the Western presence and a new tyrant in Baghdad, no kinder than the man who turned poisoned gas on them and killed tens of thousands. Still, the Kurds must know that the status quo rests on shifting sand. Baghdad continues to probe for pressure points, and lately has found a couple. It controls visas for U.N. personnel and has been working with the mother of all passions to deny entry to those deemed sympathetic to the Kurds. The government is crusading as well to bury non-governmental organizations (NGOs) through such tactics as denying them access to U.N. interagency meetings. Cut off from U.N. representatives who award contracts to the smaller organizations and kept in the dark on the U.N.’s plans, the NGOs find it much more difficult to coordinate and to raise funds for programs that benefit the Kurds. Advances in the north such as the eradication of polio have been met with pressure to tilt the field so that more money from the food-for-oil program flows to the south, where living conditions for many have deteriorated badly. For the Kurds, who have developed an improved capacity for administration during the calm, life has become more stable and predictable than ever before. As with the matter of a U.S. move against Hussein, however, the issue is not if that situation will change, only when and how. Ed Fowler ============================================================== (c) 2002 Millennium Relief & Development Services, vol. 2 no. 27 'Insight' is a publication of MRDS to interpret current events in light of the experience of members of our international network. 'Insight' archives and other information can be found on our website. 'Insight' may be freely copied with this citation. If you wish to be removed from this mailing list, simply reply and request to be removed. Millennium RDS, 5116 Bissonnet #358, Bellaire, TX 77401-4007 Tel: (713)961-5645 Fax: (713)961-5735 www.mrds.org insight@mrds.org. ==============================================================